Obama - a year to go.

When Barack Obama was inaugurated as America’s 44^th President, he used the Bible of his political hero, Abraham Lincoln, to be sworn into office. Throughout his election campaign, Obama had highlighted his inspiration for America’s 16^th President and particularly the work that he performed during the dark days of America’s Civil War, illustrated in the book ‘Team of Rivals’. As a bust of Winston Churchill had adorned the office during the Presidency of George W. Bush, Obama soon replaced it with one of Lincoln. Immortalised at Mount Rushmore and the grand Athenian-style memorial in Washington, Lincoln was famed for his ability to negotiate with sworn enemies and eventually reunite the Confederacy with the Union after four years of fighting. At the moment of victory, ‘Honest Abe’ was assassinated at Ford’s Theatre on Good Friday, and nearly 150 years later he is still revered by most, though not all, Americans. Obama, now  less than a year away from the 2012 Presidential elections  and with approval ratings hovering ominously low around the 45 per cent mark, America’s first black President will be hoping that he does not cede office after one term and can overcome hostilities like Lincoln fared during his tenure.

It was a moment that the whole world appeared to revel in. America, a country that for decades was torn apart by race relations had elected a black President (mixed-race to be specific). The First Lady’s Michelle Obama genealogy revealed that a remarkable five-generation journey from slavery to the White House.  Fifty years before him, America’s most famous black orator and civil rights campaigner, the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his ‘I have a dream speech’ and yet the early part of his prose, which is often forgotten, speaks of how America reneged on its promise he said:

“Five score years ago, a great American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today [Lincoln], signed the Emancipation Proclamation. This momentous decree came as a great beacon light of hope to millions of Negro slaves who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice. It came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of their captivity.”

It appeared the world had now come full circle. Here was a man, in the shadow of Lincoln and King, completing the Trinity. Obama, the community campaigner from Southside Chicago had become President.

For most international observers, he was importantly not George W. Bush. He was much more circumspect with his words; he wasn’t as moralistic as his predecessor and he appeared to hit the right note when talking to his audience. Obama had written his own political verse ‘The Audacity of Hope’ in 2006, a manifesto of his own thoughts. It is true that many Americans appreciated the honesty of George W. Bush and his world view; however it was clear that his perspective was often blurred by American exceptionalism and the neo-conservative ideology, which is coarse by most standards but became toxic after eight years in office. Despite the whirlwind election campaign that firstly knocked out Hilary Clinton and then Republican candidate John McCain, Obama tried to play down his ambitions. He was not a lifesaver, but just had a different perspective. Here was someone who had opposed the Iraq War that had bogged down American foreign policy, he was not an establishment figure.

There have been some high points during his Presidency, the extension of Medicare to poorer citizens, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the general bonhomie has returned towards America from abroad. Yet as this blog has mentioned before, Obama has been prostrated by the global economy and a militant Republican Party/Tea Party. So a year away, what chance does Obama have to a second term in office and does he deserve it.

As any public relations or electioneer expert will tell you, the secret to success is to keep expectations low and then to exceed beyond those boundaries. Obama, who was reluctant to accept the ‘Yes We Can’ slogan during his campaign has found it difficult to make the transition of some of his promises and in turn as received a great deal of criticism. He has been unable to close Guantanamo Bay, Afghanistan and Pakistan have became major  foreign policy headaches, the operation to clean up the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico directed criticism at him and the stimulus packages have caused great rancour from across the country. Some states such as Wisconsin and New Jersey have almost come to a standstill as the fiscal crisis puts increasing strains on the American economy and the public sector. Unemployment remains high around nine per cent, the credit ratings agency Moody’s downgraded US debt and the economy continues to stagnate.

Critics have labelled him a ‘do-nothing President’, the man who is known to think before he speaks is seen and labelled as weak. Not to mention rumours that he wasn’t even born in the US. The midterm elections that saw him lose control of the Senate and encounter an extremely right-wing Republican Party has done him no favours either. The brinkmanship nearly the pushed the country into default as the two sides could not agree an amendment on the debt ceiling in August. Although he has been able utilise their robustness as a tool of politics, it seems unlikely that Obama will be unlikely to use the economy as the platform to be re-elected. Certainly, the measures put forward by Republican candidates are hardly enviable (more tax cuts to the rich) but as Apple guru Steve Jobs said to the Obama he was heading for a one-term Presidency if he did not sort out his growth and business policies.

It seems most likely that his election strategy may be built on the better than the alternative idea. Although Mitt Romney appears to be the candidate that most deem to be Presidential, he is mistrusted by much of the Republican faithful. The alternatives of Herman Cain or Rick Perry could be possibilities. If he is unable to surmount past the 50% approval ratings then we are likely to hear musings of squeeze the middle and favour the wealthy, it will be about economic inequality. Though whichever candidate he faces will determine what line he plays. The last thing he wants to do is ostracise both blue and white-collar white voters, a place where he built his victory on in 2008.

Obama has overseen a different type of America and is trying to reduce its footprint on the international scene. He was most notably quiet during the Arab Spring and reticent during the NATO campaign in Libya. Although he has managed to use his stardom in the international arena, he doesn’t necessarily flaunt it. He has been happy to allow Secretary of State Clinton to be take stage internationally and isn’t as convivial abroad as predecessors like JFK or George W.Bush . Americans are used to their politicians being able to feel their pain and yet be the Commander in Chief and ebullient statesman, something Clinton and Reagan managed with ease, yet Obama doesn’t conform to nor want to. It appears that the many of the qualities that Obama came to office with have become his handicap. With 37% of American voters declared to be independents and 14 million currently unemployed, Obama may need to dig into the stardust that brought him to power if he wants a second term.