Prime Minister David Cameron goes into this week’s
Conservative Party conference in Birmingham knowing that his job is secure but the
lens on his leadership is closer than ever. 2012 has not been a particularly good
year for the coalition government or for the Prime Minister and his Chancellor
George Osborne. Despite the buoyant mood among the British people, fed by the
Queen’s Jubilee and the wonders of the London Olympics, reaction to the
Government has moved away from inauspicious to outright hostile. The so-called
‘omnishambles’ and constant U-turning on policies has seen the government
increasingly labelled as out of touch and more worryingly incompetent.
Cameron, the Conservative leader since December 2005, has
always outperformed his party in the polls, yet even this year his rating has
started to flag. Unfavourable headlines about his relationship with News
International executives, stories about him and his wife leaving
their daughter behind at the local pub and Tory MP Nadine Dorries calling him
and Osborne ‘two
arrogant posh boys who don’t know the price of milk’. Politicians are used
to being lambasted by the popular press on a day-to-day basis and inevitably
must accept it as part of the job description. But for Cameron, portrayed as a
snake by The Sun, these stories are starting to question his value and what he
actually represents.
Cameron for a long time was described as ‘above the prey’
and distinctly agile against criticism, the main reason being his likeability.
Cameron could not transcend class barriers like Tony Blair – not that he ever
tried to - or have the ideological fervour of other Conservative leaders like
Margaret Thatcher – not that he ever wanted to. Yet Cameron was intellectually
fierce, approachable and extremely optimistic. People generally liked him and
took him for his word.
However, things have become palpably fragile and for many
reasons. Ed Miliband, though still far behind Cameron in the leadership polls,
gave an effortless and impressively delivered speech (though rather vacuous) to
the Labour Party conference last week. The government as well appearing rather
feckless at times is making some rather unpopular decisions in a tough economic
climate. Not to mention, the elephant in the room- and one with two electoral
victories - one Boris Johnson.
So why is the PM being questioned all of a sudden. Why are
many in his party appearing bitter?
Cameron is often described as a pragmatist. One not bogged
down by ideology and one who leads by instinct rather than manuscripts.
Cameron, as well as other Tory modernisers like Osborne, William Hague and
Michael Portillo knew that the party had to change if it was to become
electable again. The Conservative Party could not remain clinging to ‘meat and
drink’ policies of the Right. It had to change and embrace a wider electorate.
Some called it ‘compassionate Conservatism’ but in effect it is just pitching
to the middle-ground. The ‘husky dog’ moment and ‘hug –a-hoody’ were attempts
to re-approach these issues and they seemed to work.
Yet now Cameron has appointed a climate sceptic Environment
Minister and evicted the liberal Ken Clarke out of the Justice department. Who
are we to believe? Is Cameron the moderniser? A Thatcherite evangelist or as
some people lazily label him, someone who simply wants to be Prime Minister?
To a large extent Cameron’s perception has presented as a
reality. He remains compassionate about environmentalism, but understands that
the costs of implementing expensive environmental reforms must come second when
reforming the economy. Here Cameron’s pragmatism takes charge. Ed Miliband may
have put forward his bizarre ‘One Nation’ Labour vision but Cameron remains
firmly as a modernising One Nation Conservative.
He is not someone who changes tact on the flip of the coin,
but puts things into perspective. People turn their nose up at concepts like ‘The
Big Society’ but they truly still remain in the Government’s plans and are
taking shape, but like most things the economy must come first. Cameron is
fully aware that he must balance the issue of the economy before anything else.
In his two and half years as Prime Minister, under huge
economic constraints – more than anyone could have anticipated - he has still
managed to perform huge reforms in areas like education, welfare, localism and
planning – the Downing Street policy room does not lay dormant – all driven by
the Prime Minister himself.
Advisors know that when headlines are bad and polls forecast
an undesirable outcome it is easy to draw back to your comfort zone. There may
be pressure from certain voices within and new think-tanks such as Conservative
Voice calling for Cameron to move right, but that would be profligate. The
country remains conservative on issues like law and order, welfare and tax, but
the centre has by no means shifted in this Parliament. The recent reshuffle was
important to freshen up the ranks and introduce new ideas, but strategically
there has been no great shift. Cameron remains in the centre and that is where
he intends to remain.
When Cameron approaches the platform on Tuesday he does not
need to be like Miliband, in fact far from that. Cameron needs to be bullish
and affirm the good this government has done and what is continuing to do. It
is not about changing message, it is about ensuring about rebuilding the
narrative and pushing for electoral success in 2015. Cameron and Osborne know
this because if they fail, they’ll both be gone.
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