“Hello young man, do you know we’ve soon got an election
coming up?”
Ha, thought I, he obviously was unaware of the type of
company of I worked for.
“I am.” I said.
“Well can I ask, will you be voting for UKIP? There are many
young people like you now joining our party.”
Oh my goodness, I thought. I am being cajoled/ harassed into
voting UKIP by a canvasser using nudge theory, on my own doorstep!
“I’m not.” I said, with my arms folded. “I’m really not
quite sure why voting for UKIP would be in my interest, indeed for the rest of
the country.”
I’ll be honest, I’ve normally got a lot of time for people
who go knocking on doors to talk about politics.
Yes, it’s quite self-serving
i.e. they’re just looking for voter intention and data for their own records,
but it is quite a task to knock on the majority of doors in a constituency and
ask what people care about and dislike.
“Well...” said the man.
If I was guessing, he was in his late sixties. He wore a
tweed jacket, had slightly unkempt grey hair, merrily rotund. Overall quite
friendly.
“It’s in all our interest because we no longer have control
of our borders, we no longer have control to make our own rules. It’s all in
done in Brussels now you see.”
Wow, I thought, he’s gone straight for the nuclear argument.
He didn’t even ask me how long I’d lived here, where I worked or if I had any
particular concerns about the local area.
“So, what do you suggest?” I retorted. “We pull out
entirely? I’m all for reforming the place, very much so, but I’ve yet to hear
how the transition period would work.”
Then came the numbers. The costs. The statistics. The data.
In the end, it was a case of agreeing to disagree, but here
was a UKIP man on our doorstep. That was pretty unheard of in Harrogate. I
remember once upon a time seeing them drive around the town centre with a
megaphone attached to their car, reeling off number after number. This was in
the years after The Referendum Party, when UKIP weren’t even considered to be
on the fringes, but quite extreme. Now we’re in a world where they have the
UK’s biggest representation within the EU Parliament and are considered to be
‘mainstream’. Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by his appearance.
Yet, we’re still adjusting to it all. The left look on in
glee as the right splinters and the Conservatives are dragged between their
traditional base and the election winning centre ground, whereas the right are
savouring the shambolic state of centre left politics led by Ed Miliband and
his day-to-day issues. While the Lib Dems may have a place in Government after
the next election, who’s not to say that power may lie from within the clutches
of either Nigel Farage or the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon, if not in this election,
then perhaps 2020.
There are no absolute truths in politics and the shape of
the 2015 General election is becoming very interesting and completely
unexplainable. A recent poll now puts the Conservatives ahead of the Labour
Party by three points, but even in an economic recovery can we expect a Tory
majority? Though some cruelly argue that a corpse could have done better
against Gordon Brown in the 2010 election, is it likely that Conservatives will
be able to maintain all their current seats, as well as gain the 40 or so more
needed to gain a majority? The polls suggest it is unlikely.
 |
| The leaders' debate 2010. |
The loyalty towards Labour’s Ed Miliband appears hollow and
more importantly do voters have a real idea of what a Labour-led government
would do with almost six months to go? Even the so-called 35% strategy may be
pushing it at this rate.
Then there are the Lib Dems. Notoriously entrenched in the
seats they hold and formidable grassroots campaigners, another ‘unknown unknown’
in this election is to whether they will be able to hold on to as many seats
they forecast. Opinion polls before the 2010 election gave them a healthy 23%,
yet they have slumped on average to this Parliament to a mere 7%. Will the
public punish them for being part of the Government? Or will they claw on and
fight?
Politicians and commentators often hint at the suggestion
that when a General Election comes round and things ultimately get serious, people
always revert to the mainstream parties. There is an historic precedence to
this and who can disagree with facts. Yet, we don’t have that certainty and
politicians are hesitant to jump to a conclusion that there will be a
regression to the mean. Call it an end to ‘three party politics’ or as the UKIP
MP Douglas Carswell calls it ‘iDemocracy’, times are changing.
 |
| The new SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon |
What is interesting to see is that the emergence of UKIP and
SNP and their subsequent rise is not simply down to the state of affairs from
the established parties or a mood of anti-Westminster. Both SNP and UKIP, have successfully
used a mixture of old and new campaigning techniques, along with a charismatic
and likeable leader, to not only to get themselves recognised, but have a voice
at the table. The question for the long-term is whether their campaigning can
bring in support, money, votes and ultimately policies.
I did not go away and vote UKIP in the European elections.
Yet, I went away and told numerous people that I spoke to one of their
campaigners. Politics works in funny ways and until May 7 and the counting
thereafter, we may only really have an idea then to what new politics really is.
