UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s confirmation that he will be
standing as a candidate in the Kent seat of Thanet South came as no surprise
for those who follow the travails of the UK’s fourth party. In a week, where
Mayor of London Boris Johnson confirmed that he too was looking for a seat
ahead of the 2015 election, the House of Commons may become a more colourful place
if the votes go the way of these two gents next year.
Yet, while the papers may cover firstly where Boris may
stand and secondly, whether he will make a serious stand for the leadership
post-2015, what of UKIP and has their bubble burst since the European
elections? No doubt, much of the party’s success has come off the back of general
antipathy towards the three main parties, but many commentators have said that
May 2014 will be the party’s apex.
Indeed, some point that the momentum was lost when the
charismatic Farage decided not to stand in the seat of Newark, following the
resignation of Conservative MP Patrick Mercer. In the following months, the
UKIP leader has reshuffled his pack and arguably strengthened his frontbench with
the appointments of Patrick O’Flynn and Steven Woolfe. Yet, the party remains
relatively quiet in the press. After sustained attacks on party candidates in
the run up to the EU vote, UKIP has dropped off the radar and most publicity
has dissipated.
 |
| Will Farage finally be elected in Westminster? (Spectator picture) |
This is partly down to the fact that both Parliaments in
Westminster and Brussels are in recess. Additionally, this UKIP are now
regrouping and setting their strategy for 2015. Farage’s announcement is the
first in this news cycle, but the second is the fact that the party is planning
to host its party conference at Doncaster racecourse. Doncaster’s MP being the
Labour leader Ed Miliband.
Polling from Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft continues to
show that UKIP voters continue to affect the overall performance and
possibility of a Conservative majority, but it is and should be alarming to
Labour MPs too. While their policy agenda is by no means concrete and partly
feeds off the uncertainties of voters, as well as the general backlash to incumbent
parties, UKIP is able to tap into the concerns of what we may call traditional
Labour voters. White working class voters, who feel politicians have ignored
their concerns on immigration, welfare and jobs. UKIP is having an impact in
Northern communities where Conservatives gave up the ghost a long time ago.
So with these announcements, should we expect much come May?
There remain serious questions to whether UKIP has the concentration and
funding to sustain support across 650 seats. Nigel Farage says the party will
be putting candidates in every seat, but is this a sensible idea? Surely the
leader would be best advised targeting particular seats and finally putting
UKIP’s flag in the likes of Kent, Essex, Rotherham, Portsmouth or Boston? There
remains a question also of follow through. Will those voters who ticked the
UKIP box last May, make the same decision come the General Election? By no
means can the three main parties sit back and take this attitude, the
Conservatives must continue to knock-on doors and reiterate their own message and
the holes in the UKIP message too. It would be foolish to simply think that voters
will revert back accordingly.
Naturally the question about the UKIP is whether they are
serious political force? Are they a party full of interesting ideas that could
change the economic fortunes of Britons up and down the country? Or are they
simply a group of basket cases, who will continue to give the Tories, Lib Dems
and Labour Party a bloody nose at by-elections? The scrutiny will continue to
grow and when the majority of voters come to decide a month before the polls, the
question is whether UKIP’s lack of credibility shines through or if they really
are a party they can trust.
